This memorandum describes three scenarios of the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland. The scenarios examine the development of the epidemiological situation, and potential economic and social impacts. The scenarios are not projections but, instead, approximate and simplified descriptions of alternative development paths. The examination concerns the strategic level, and the memorandum does not present measures in detail. The aim is to support the Government in strategic decision-making and the consideration of different alternatives.

The scenarios examine the period between December 2020 and the end of June 2021. At the end of 2020, the situation in Finland has followed an accelerating trend similar to that seen in other European countries during the autumn period. However, this has occurred at a significant delay and developed clearly more slowly than in other countries. While population throughout the country have contracted the virus, the incidence is still well below the EU average.